Journal list menu
Biological invasions are increasingly being considered important spatial processes that drive global changes, threatening biodiversity, regional economies, and ecosystem functions. A unifying conceptual model of the invasion dynamics could serve as a useful tool for comparison and classification of invasion processes involving different species across large geographic ranges. By dividing these geographic ranges that are subject to invasions into discrete spatial units, we here conceptualize the invasion process as the transition from pristine to invaded spatial units. We use California cities as the spatial units and a long-term database of invasive tropical tephritids to characterize the invasion patterns. A new life-table method based on insect demography, including the progression model of invasion stage transition and the species-specific partitioning model of multispecies invasions, was developed to analyze the invasion patterns. The progression model allows us to estimate the probability and rate of transition for individual cities from pristine to infested stages and subsequently differentiate the first year of detection from detection recurrences. Importantly, we show that the interval of invasive tephritid recurrence in a city declines with increasing invasion stages of the city. The species-specific partitioning model revealed profound differences in invasion outcome depending on which tephritid species was first detected (and then locally eradicated) in the early stage of invasion. Taken together, we discuss how these two life-table invasion models can cast new light on existing invasion concepts; in particular, on formulating invasion dynamics as the state transition of cities and partitioning species-specific roles during multispecies invasions. These models provide a new set of tools for predicting the spatiotemporal progression of invasion and providing early warnings of recurrent invasions for efficient management.
|ecy2682-sup-0001-AppendixS1.pdfPDF document, 1.2 MB|
|ecy2682-sup-0002-AppendixS2.pdfPDF document, 235.7 KB|
|ecy2682-sup-0003-DataS1.rarapplication/x-rar-compressed, 35.4 KB|
|ecy2682-sup-0004-MetadataS1.pdfPDF document, 140.6 KB|
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
- 2017. The eighth edition AJCC cancer staging manual: continuing to build a bridge from a population-based to a more “personalized” approach to cancer staging. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 67: 93–99.
- 1992. Life-table construction and analysis in the evaluation of natural enemies. Annual Review of Entomology 37: 587–614.
- 2018. Bridgehead effects and role of adaptive evolution in invasive populations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 33: 527–534.
- 1989. The multiple decrement life table: a unifying framework for cause-of-death analysis in ecology. Oecologia 78: 131–137.
- 2001. Insect biodemography. Annual Review of Entomology 46: 79–110.
- 2019. Biodemography: introduction to concepts and methods. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
- 2017. The 30-year debate on a multi-billion-dollar threat: Tephritid fruit fly establishment in California. American Entomologist 63: 100–113.
- 2018. Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: a meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect. PLoS Biology 16: e2005987.
- CDFA. 2017. California Agricultural Exports 2016–2017. California Agricultural Statistics Review 2017–2018. CDFA, Sacramento, California, USA.
- CDFA. 2018. California Department of Food and Agriculture Quarantine Manual, Section 3423. Oriental fruit fly interior quarantine. CDFA, Sacramento, California, USA.
- 1988. Life-table analysis incorporating both sexes and variable development rates among individuals. Environmental Entomology 17: 26–34.
- 1999. Influence of infant-feeding patterns on early mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in Durban, South Africa: a prospective cohort study. Lancet 354: 471–476.
- 1992. Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass fire cycle, and global change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 63–87.
- 2014. Natural enemies implicated in the regulation of an invasive pest: a life table analysis of the population dynamics of the emerald ash borer. Agricultural and Forest Entomology 16: 406–416.
- 2015. Benefits of invasion prevention: effect of time lags, spread rates, and damage persistence. Ecological Economics 116: 146–153.
- 2018. The utility of mortality hazard rates in population analyses. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 100: 1–11.
- 2011. Host status of Vaccinium reticulatum (Ericaceae) to invasive tephritid fruit flies in Hawaii. Journal of Economic Entomology 104: 571–573.
- 2017. Extended dispersal kernels in a changing world: insights from statistics of extremes. Journal of Ecology 105: 63–74.
- 1662. Natural and political observations mentioned in a following index, and made upon the bills of mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 90: 1–61.
- 2017. Package multcomp. Simultaneous inference in general parametric models. Version 1.4-8. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/multcomp/index.html
- 2017. Invasion dynamics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
- 2019. How to invade an ecological network. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 34: 121–131.
- 2009. Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges. Ecology Letters 12: 334–350.
- 2014. Methods for studying cause-specific senescence in the wild. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5: 924–933.
- 2010. The effects of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models. Ecography 33: 115–127.
- 2004. Health demography. Pages 341–370 in J. S. Siegel, and D. A. Swanson, editors. The methods and materials of demography. Elsevier Academic Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
- 2006. Predicting the invasion success of Mediterranean alien plants from their introduction characteristics. Ecography 29: 853–865.
- 2005. Mathematical demography. Pages 659–717 in D. Poston and M. Micklin, editors. Handbook of population. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
- 1999. Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease. Lancet 353: 89–92.
- 2015. The progressive invasion of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in South Africa. Biological Invasions 17: 2803–2809.
- 2016. Prioritizing species, pathways, and sites to achieve conservation targets for biological invasion. Biological Invasions 18: 299–314.
- 2016. Venny. An interactive tool for comparing lists with Venn's diagrams. 2007–2015. BioinfoGP, CNB-CSIC. http://bioinfogp.cnb.csic.es/tools/venny/
- 2013. From trickle to flood: the large-scale, cryptic invasion of California by tropical fruit flies. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 280: 20131466.
- 2016. Quantifying “apparent” impact and distinguishing impact from invasiveness in multispecies plant invasions. Ecological Applications 26: 162–173.
- 2009. Mortality risk in insects. Environmental Entomology 38: 2–10.
- 2001. Demography: measuring and modeling population processes. Blackwell Publishers, Malden, Massachusetts, USA.
- R Development Core Team. 2017. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
- 1999. Linear models : least squares and alternatives. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
- 2008. Fifty years of invasion ecology - the legacy of Charles Elton. Diversity and Distributions 14: 161–168.
- 2014. Landscape diversity slows the spread of an invasive forest pest species. Ecography 37: 648–658.
- 2018. Elevated success of multispecies bacterial invasions impacts community composition during ecological succession. Ecology Letters 21: 516–524.
- 2016. Temporal and interspecific variation in rates of spread for insect species invading Europe during the last 200 years. Biological Invasions 18: 907–920.
- 2013. Healthy life expectancy for 187 countries, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 381: 628–628.
- 2018. Joint species distribution modelling for spatio-temporal occurrence and ordinal abundance data. Global Ecology and Biogeography 27: 142–155.
- 2006. Invasional meltdown 6 years later: important phenomenon, unfortunate metaphor, or both? Ecology Letters 9: 912–919.
- 1952. Methyl eugenol as an attractant for oriental fruit fly. Journal of Economic Entomology 45: 241–248.
- 2017. Density dependence in demography and dispersal generates fluctuating invasion speeds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 114: 5053–5058.
- 2018. A 2018 Horizon scan of emerging issues for global conservation and biological diversity. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 33: 47–58.
- 2017. Spatiotemporal distribution of an invasive insect in an urban landscape: introduction, establishment and impact. Landscape Ecology 32: 2041–2057.
- 2016. Cost-effective monitoring of biological invasions under global change: a model-based framework. Journal of Applied Ecology 53: 1317–1329.
- WHO. 2001. International classification of functioning, disability and health. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
- 1996. The varying success of invaders. Ecology 77: 1661–1666.
- 1994. The analysis of survival (mortality) data—fitting Gompertz, Weibull, and logistic functions. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development 74: 15–33.
- 2016. Sampling inspection to prevent the invasion of alien pests: statistical theory of import plant quarantine systems in Japan. Population Ecology 58: 63–80.
- 2019. Global distribution and invasion pattern of oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae). Journal of Applied Entomology 143: 1–12.